In a dramatic turn of events, the probabilities of winning the upcoming federal election in Canada have shifted significantly. Early 2024 polls indicated a near certainty for the Conservatives to secure the majority of seats. However, recent changes, including the replacement of Justin Trudeau by Mark Carney, have dramatically altered the landscape. As of April 16, 2025, the Liberals now boast a 98% chance of winning. This is a stark contrast to their previous 1% chance just a few months ago. Such a rapid and substantial change in election probabilities is noteworthy.
John O’Connell
@jdpoc
·
Apr 16 In Canada, The Conservative Party, aligning itself firmly with #Trump, has just reduced it’s official chances of winning the next election to 0.7%.From a 98% chance of winning.Maddest chart I’ve ever seen.
Marley Nasty Canadian with elbows up
@MTW2478
·
Apr 12 Liberals projected to win majority. Odds at 99%.
Hate to sound like a broken record, but, this is just based on polls & polls don’t vote. Liberals need to vote & then we can reach 100% Vote any day at an Elections Canada Office http://elections.ca
Collin Rugg
@CollinRugg
·
Mar 20 JUST IN: Canadian Liberal Party leader Mark Carney is set to call an election in April as his odds to win the election have flipped for the first time on Polymarket.Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has led in the odds market for months however that has since flipped.The
Wyatt Claypool
@wyatt_claypool
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Apr 12 Interestingly enough 338 Canada’s election simulation shows the Conservatives can win a minority government even if they lose the popular vote to the Liberals by 1.6%.Everything hinges on if the NDP can punch around 10% and if the BQ can get 80% of their vote from 2021.
Chris Sky
@chrissaccocia1
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Apr 14 4 to 1 odds AGAINST Pierre Poillievre and the conservatives.Here comes another 10 years of Liberal majority.Start memorizing the 75 genders, Canadians. You love this shit
Jinglai He
@JinglaiHe
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Apr 13 Back home in Ottawa and I kid you not, the sign ratio is 15:1 for .The polls are absolute BS and meant to discourage Conservative voters from voting.Don’t fall for it! The establishment is in for a shock when Pierre Poilievre wins in a LANDSLIDE on election day.
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