99.9% Certainty in Probability? Think Again!

David Spiegelhalter, a noted statistician, argues that probability is inherently subjective. He explains that while probability quantifies uncertainty, the numbers we assign are not objective. Spiegelhalter uses an example where claiming a 99.9% certainty of flying off a roof would prove one’s poor judgment in probability assessment. He emphasizes that although probabilities can be tested against reality, the probabilities themselves are not objective. The justification for probability assessments varies; for instance, a coin flip might seem 50/50, but this assumption holds stronger if the coin and the flip are fair. Spiegelhalter concludes that while probability might not exist in an objective sense, it remains a useful tool in both everyday and scientific contexts.

Source: flowingdata.com

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