The NFL’s playoff format has been under scrutiny since expanding to 14 teams in 2020. The change was primarily to increase revenue, adding two extra playoff games and generating hundreds of millions for the league’s owners. However, the impact on the game’s quality and competitiveness has been mixed. The No. 7 seed, introduced to give more teams a chance, has a dismal 1-9 record against the No. 2 seed, with the only victory coming in 2023 when the Packers beat the Cowboys 48-32. Despite this, the average seventh seed has been the league’s 11th-best team by DVOA, suggesting that these teams are not as hopeless as their record might indicate.
The top seeds’ success rate in reaching the Super Bowl has remained unchanged at 50%, showing no significant shift in their advantage. However, the value of being the No. 2 seed has diminished since they no longer receive a bye, going 9-1 in the wild-card round. This has led to discussions about potential format changes, including reducing or expanding the playoff field, reseeding, or even allowing top seeds to choose their opponents. Each proposal has its pros and cons, but the NFL’s current format seems set to stay, balancing entertainment value with competitive integrity.
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