Goldman Sachs’ “stagflation basket” has risen nearly 20% this year. This basket focuses on commodities and defensive sectors like health care, while shorting consumer discretionary, semiconductors, and unprofitable tech stocks. In contrast, the S&P 500 has declined by 4% and bitcoin has dropped 10%. The International Monetary Fund describes stagflation as a situation with high inflation, economic stagnation, high unemployment, and declining economic activity. Forward-looking inflation metrics, such as two-year and five-year swaps, have reached multi-year highs. A section of the Treasury market yield curve has inverted, signaling a potential recession. Real-time GDP trackers, like the Atlanta Fed’s GDP, indicate a sharp contraction in economic activity. Gold has gained 13% this year, yet bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. stocks has increased recently.
Spencer Hakimian
@SpencerHakimian
·
Mar 7 Goldman Sachs substantially raising their core inflation forecast for 2025.
And can get even worse from here if tariffs continue to be placed.
Year 5 of >3% inflation and counting.
Complete and utter policy failure by everyone.
Ismeidy
@ismeidyfinanzas
·
3h Stagflation gains ground
#Trump tariffs derail global growth?
Stagflation, a combination of economic stagnation and inflation, is emerging as a growing concern in financial markets
The Goldman Sachs stagflation basket has outperformed Bitcoin, the S&P 500 and even gold this year
Jim Panzee
@Ozard_OfWiz
·
Mar 12 Anyone who follows the research of the US investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS) might get the impression that the bank’s economists tend to be “permabulls”.
But, as GS’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, now emphasizes, the tide has turned. He lowered the growth outlook for the US
Alpha in Academia
@AlphainAcademia
·
Mar 13 Goldman Sachs’ “Stagflation” long-short basket of securities is up 20% YTD, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s YTD performance of -5%.
This basket of securities is long commodities and defensive sectors (like healthcare) and short consumer-discretionary, semiconductors
FinGenAi
@ackmeni
·
Mar 13 Goldman L/S Stagflation basket is up 18% in 2025 | HolgerZ
Long: Commodity & Healthcare stocks
Short: Consumer Discretionary & Chip stocks
#GSPUSTAG
Stagflation L/S Basket vs. S&P 500
Holger Zschaepitz
@Schuldensuehner
·
Mar 13 The stagflation trade is proving to be a rare winner as the stock market rout continues. The Goldman L/S Stagflation basket—which benefits from rising commodity & healthcare stocks while betting against consumer discretionary and chip stocks—has gained nearly 18% in 2025.
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