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50% Spike in Credit Spreads: Bitcoin’s Next Big Drop?

Credit spreads have widened to their highest levels since August 2024, a time when bitcoin experienced a 33% drop. The ratio of the iShares 37 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) to the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) has spiked sharply. This IEI/HYG ratio, used as a proxy for credit spreads, reached its highest point since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023. During that crisis, bitcoin hit a local bottom just below $20,000. Historically, bitcoin and other risk assets tend to decline when credit spreads expand rapidly. The current surge in credit spreads raises questions about whether it has peaked or if further declines in bitcoin are imminent. If credit spreads continue to rise, it could indicate increasing stress in financial markets, potentially leading to more trouble for risk-on investments.

Source: www.coindesk.com

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