President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian imports could pose a significant threat to Canada’s automotive sector, particularly in Ontario, where five major automakers produced 1.54 million light-duty vehicles last year, mostly for U.S. consumers. These tariffs could increase vehicle prices by $1,750 to $10,000, potentially slowing production and eliminating jobs. In 2023, Canadian auto parts exports reached $23.5 billion, while light vehicle exports totaled $53.5 billion, with the U.S. accounting for 95.3% of Canada’s total auto exports. The industry has been recovering from a low of 1.1 million vehicles in 2021 to 1.54 million last year, though this is still 47% below the peak of 2.9 million in 2000. The uncertainty is compounded by the transition to electric vehicles and the potential removal of EV subsidies.
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