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Who Should Be Holding the Wheel?

Two arguments get run together constantly and they are separate: how far this technology actually goes, and who should be allowed to hold it. You can expect enormous change and want it handed to everybody. You can think the whole thing is overrated and still want a licence on it.

Twenty-four statements, about four minutes, and a point on a map. One of these two questions is a forecast, so your result carries the date it was taken.

24 questions

Answered 0 of 24

  1. 1 Progress here looks faster than it is because the easy part came first.
  2. 2 The important things about these systems have not been built yet.
  3. 3 Rules written for this will mostly protect whoever wrote them.
  4. 4 The problems left are the kind that take decades rather than quarters.
  5. 5 The pace of the last few years has run ahead of what I expected.
  6. 6 Openness here mostly benefits whoever already has the most hardware.
  7. 7 Some things a system can do should not be handed to everyone.
  8. 8 The most capable systems should only be run by organizations that answer to somebody.
  9. 9 The systems we have now are close to what this approach can do.
  10. 10 The important things about these systems are the ones already in front of us.
  11. 11 Concentrating this in a few hands is a worse outcome than the misuse it would prevent.
  12. 12 I would rather many groups had this than one group had it well.
  13. 13 A small number of well-resourced groups will do this more carefully than a free-for-all would.
  14. 14 The systems we have now are an early version of what this approach can do.
  15. 15 Most of what gets called progress here is the same method applied at greater scale.
  16. 16 Governments should have a say in what gets released.
  17. 17 Weights should be published so that anyone can run them.
  18. 18 Something that can do most of what a competent person does is coming into view.
  19. 19 Anything one group can do with these, others should be able to do too.
  20. 20 Building the largest systems should require a licence, the way other serious things do.
  21. 21 Within ten years these systems will do a large share of the work people are paid for today.
  22. 22 People are better served by being able to look inside these systems than by being protected from them.
  23. 23 The list of things these systems cannot do is getting shorter quickly.
  24. 24 Predictions about what this technology will do have a poor track record.