New home sales have decreased by 4% year-over-year, based on a 3-month average of non-seasonally adjusted data. Historically, a 20% drop in new home sales often signals an upcoming recession. Exceptions to this trend occurred during the Vietnam buildup in the mid-1960s and in late 2021 due to the pandemic. Currently, there are no special circumstances that would distort this indicator. Heavy truck sales, another key economic indicator, stood at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 403 thousand in March, down from 436 thousand in February and 12.1% lower than 459 thousand in February 2025. Typically, a sharp decline in heavy truck sales precedes a recession. The yield curve, which inverted in 2019 and 2022, is also watched closely as a leading indicator of economic downturns.
Bravos Research
@bravosresearch
·
Feb 27 Home sales is a MAJOR recession warning signal
And it’s reached levels last seen during the Financial Crisis
Buckle up.
A thread
Amy Nixon
@texasrunnerDFW
·
Feb 21 January existing home sales come in weaker than expected
Interest rates still high, weather was terrible, lots of reasons for the weakness
Overall takeaway to remember:
We are entering our third year of selling about 1 million fewer existing homes than is typical
Lock Screenss
@lockscreenlyfe
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Apr 6 Why Lower Interest Rates Haven”t Made Buying A Home More Affordable. New home sales unexpectedly fell for the third straight month in December.
MacroEdge RESights
@RESightsbyME
·
Feb 21 Existing home sales fall month/month to back near cycle lows…
Not going to change until prices do, rates do meaningfully, inflation does, or incomes rise…
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